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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 94

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to WAS 49 for 6 yards (52-T.Garvin; 29-D.Ihenacho). NYG-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 17-Harris has a knee injury

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model