4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 14

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model