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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP