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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 83

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYG 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 2 yards (35-D.Phillips; 89-D.Carrier).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model