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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 7 at the 22
New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(2:17) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+1.04 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.59 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
KICK
+1.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
