4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 39

New York Giants 13 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 6 for 1 yard (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP