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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP