4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:24) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-M.Thomas. 31-M.Thomas up the middle to MIA 44 for 3 yards (50-R.Shazier).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model