Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to MIA: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.140 vs Matt Moore (MIA) +0.338 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
- Wind 16 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
MIA
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:25 TD PIT (12:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – PIT 6
- Q1 07:02 TD PIT (7:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – PIT 13
- Q1 03:11 FG MIA (3:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – PIT 14
- Q2 12:42 TD PIT (12:42) 26-L.Bell up the middle to MIA 1 for no gain (47-K.Alonso). Pittsburgh challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 26-L.Bell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PIT 20
- Q2 04:57 FG MIA (4:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 6 – PIT 20
- Q3 06:37 FG PIT (6:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. MIA 6 – PIT 23
- Q3 02:10 TD PIT (2:10) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – PIT 29
- Q4 06:02 TD MIA (6:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 26-D.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – PIT 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:09) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%
(3:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(10:24) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-M.Thomas. 31-M.Thomas up the middle to MIA 44 for 3 yards (50-R.Shazier).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%
(6:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 37%
(:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore scrambles up the middle to PIT 40 for 2 yards (91-S.Tuitt).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to MIA 23, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to PIT 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 84-A.Brown to PIT 35 for 9 yards (45-M.Hull). MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(10:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to MIA 21, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 9 yards (98-V.Williams).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%
(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 10-K.Stills to PIT 27 for 8 yards (94-L.Timmons).