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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model