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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore scrambles up the middle to PIT 40 for 2 yards (91-S.Tuitt).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model