Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Miami Dolphins 6

(10:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to MIA 21, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 9 yards (98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.04 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model