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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 10-K.Stills to PIT 27 for 8 yards (94-L.Timmons).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model