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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 48

Houston Texans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. (The punt hang time was 4.34 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.90 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP