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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Saturday 2017-01-07 · 16:35 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

OAK
32.3%
HOU
67.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.092 vs Connor Cook (LV) -0.546 EPA/dropback (LV starting Connor Cook in place of Matt McGloin)
  • HOU defense: -0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 20
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Concussion
Derek Carr QB Out Ankle
Donald Penn T Out Knee
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Shoulder
Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Ankle
Andre Holmes WR Questionable Shoulder
Karl Joseph S Questionable Toe
Matthew McGloin QB Questionable left Shoulder
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Ankle
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Tom Savage QB Out Concussion
John Simon LB Out Chest

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 14
–
HOU 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 FG HOU (8:04) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. OAK 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 06:20 TD HOU (6:20) 26-L.Miller left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – HOU 9
  • Q1 01:06 TD LV (1:06) 28-L.Murray right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – HOU 10
  • Q2 08:48 FG HOU (8:48) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. OAK 7 – HOU 13
  • Q2 01:24 TD HOU (1:24) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – HOU 19
  • Q4 12:34 TD HOU (12:34) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – HOU 26
  • Q4 08:14 TD LV (8:14) (Shotgun) 8-C.Cook pass short middle to 18-A.Holmes for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – HOU 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (11:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to LV 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie. (the Punt Hang time was 4.1 seconds.)

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:56) 7-M.King punts 31 yards to LV 40, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 73%

    (8:04) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:41) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. (The punt hang time was 4.8 seconds.)

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at HOU 38 for 37 yards (9-S.Lechler). (The punt hang time was 4.32 seconds.)

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 16 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 43 for 9 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (13:18) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to HOU 5, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (8:48) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:48) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 22 for 7 yards (22-T.Jones).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 35%

    (2:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. (The punt hang time was 4.34 seconds.)

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:37) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington. (The punt hang time was 3.37 seconds.)

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:50) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to HOU 19, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 35 for 16 yards (33-D.Washington).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:43) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to HOU 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 30. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 30 for no gain (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on HOU-50-A.Dent, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 30.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to HOU 49 for 17 yards (89-S.Anderson). (The punt hang time was 3.62 seconds.)

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 26%

    (9:04) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to HOU 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 4 yards (52-B.Peters, 50-A.Dent). (The punt hang time was 4.66 seconds.)

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:25) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to HOU 22, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds. (The punt hang time was 3.17 seconds.)

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to LV 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 11 for 2 yards (20-D.Jones).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to LV 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 19 for 1 yard (20-D.Jones).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%

    (2:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to LV 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 88 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-C.Cook pass short middle to 81-M.Rivera to LV 18 for 6 yards (35-E.Pleasant; 29-A.Hal).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 8-C.Cook pass short left intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Bouye at LV 44. 21-A.Bouye to LV 38 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).