4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington. (The punt hang time was 3.37 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model