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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 37

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to LV 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie. (the Punt Hang time was 4.1 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP