Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to HOU 28, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 30. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 30 for no gain (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on HOU-50-A.Dent, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.01 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model