4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 90

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 4 yards (52-B.Peters, 50-A.Dent). (The punt hang time was 4.66 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model