Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 73

Houston Texans 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(6:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to LV 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 19 for 1 yard (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.59 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model