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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 40

Houston Texans 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to LV 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP