Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 27

(:23) (Shotgun) 8-C.Cook pass short left intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Bouye at LV 44. 21-A.Bouye to LV 38 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.44 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -0.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model