Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 10

(4:41) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. (The punt hang time was 4.8 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.50 EP
75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model