Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 76

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at HOU 38 for 37 yards (9-S.Lechler). (The punt hang time was 4.32 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.92 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model