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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model