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Green Bay Packers

10-6 HC Mike McCarthy
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Dallas Cowboys

13-3 HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-01-15 · 16:40 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

GB
50.9%
DAL
49.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL on 7 more days rest than GB
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.237 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.270 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Dak Prescott in place of Mark Sanchez)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 27 20–34
–
DAL 26 19–33
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 53

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

GB

Jordy Nelson WR Out Ribs
James Starks RB Out Concussion
J.C. Tretter C Out Knee
Jayrone Elliott LB Questionable Hand
Jeff Janis WR Questionable Quadricep
Quinten Rollins CB Questionable Neck

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Groin
Tyrone Crawford DT Questionable Shoulder
Justin Durant LB Questionable Elbow
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Terrell McClain DT Questionable Ankle
Tyron Smith T Questionable Knee
Cedric Thornton DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 34
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:28 FG DAL (11:28) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. GB 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 09:06 TD GB (9:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 82-R.Rodgers for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-95-D.Irving, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 14:18 TD GB (14:18) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DAL 3
  • Q2 07:42 TD GB (7:42) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB-69-D.Bakhtiari was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. GB 20 – DAL 3
  • Q2 06:10 TD DAL (6:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-D.Bryant for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-J.Thomas]. Pass complete on a go pattern. GB 21 – DAL 9
  • Q2 01:03 FG DAL (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. GB 21 – DAL 13
  • Q3 11:29 TD GB (11:29) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 89-J.Cook for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – DAL 13
  • Q4 11:43 TD DAL (11:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 82-J.Witten for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – DAL 19
  • Q4 04:12 TD DAL (4:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – DAL 26
  • Q4 01:38 FG GB (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 31 – DAL 28
  • Q4 00:40 FG DAL (:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. GB 31 – DAL 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 34 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 73%

    (11:28) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 20 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%

    (5:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to GB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde. Green Bay's Burnett has a quad injury; his return is questionable.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:10) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 52 yards to DAL 41, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 49 for 8 yards (58-J.Tripp; 29-K.Brice).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:02) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to DAL 38, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%

    (:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →