Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 28 – Dallas Cowboys 20

(9:22) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model