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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 28 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(1:38) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model