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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.11 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model