Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 81

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 13

(8:57) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to HOU 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at NE 49 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.51 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model