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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2017-01-14 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🥶 Cold Spread 16.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

HOU
17.6%
NE
82.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.328 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.159 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NE on 6 more days rest than HOU
  • HOU defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
NE 30
Projected margin: NE by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

HOU

Quintin Demps S Questionable Hamstring
John Simon LB Questionable Chest

NE

Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 16
–
NE 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:34 TD NE (9:34) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-88-M.Bennett was injured during the play. HOU 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 01:19 FG HOU (1:19) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – NE 7
  • Q1 01:15 TD NE 8-N.Novak kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to NE 2. 33-D.Lewis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1st postseason kickoff return TD in franchise history. HOU 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 11:39 FG HOU (11:39) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 6 – NE 14
  • Q2 10:54 TD HOU (10:54) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:10 FG NE (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 13 – NE 17
  • Q3 09:14 TD NE (9:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 28-J.White for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 18th career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15). HOU 13 – NE 23
  • Q4 14:55 FG HOU (14:55) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 16 – NE 24
  • Q4 12:18 TD NE (12:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33-Lewis 3rd TD, 5th Patriot to score 3 TD in a postseason game HOU 16 – NE 30
  • Q4 06:40 FG NE (6:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 16 – NE 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman to NE 39 for 14 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 20%

    (11:11) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to HOU 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to NE 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (1:19) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (11:39) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:57) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to HOU 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at NE 49 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

    (7:55) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to NE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 18 for 7 yards.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (5:35) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman to HOU 48 for 10 yards (50-A.Dent; 89-S.Anderson). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:19) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 36 for 18 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (12:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 20 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 50%

    (6:03) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to HOU 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (2:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (14:55) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%

    (13:07) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to NE 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 33 for 4 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (6:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.