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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 37

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model