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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 89

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman to HOU 48 for 10 yards (50-A.Dent; 89-S.Anderson). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP