Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 17 – Houston Texans 13

(14:19) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 36 for 18 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model