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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 53

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to HOU 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.09 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP