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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 41

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP