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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 40

New England Patriots 24 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to HOU 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model