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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 16 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to NE 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 33 for 4 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model