4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 24

New England Patriots 31 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model