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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 63

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(14:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP