Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Hester ran ob at ATL 7 for 80 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model