Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.255 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL on 6 more days rest than SEA
- SEA defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- SEA offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
SEA
ATL
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:30 TD SEA (6:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ATL 0
- Q2 14:18 TD ATL (14:18) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – ATL 6
- Q2 11:23 FG SEA (11:23) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – ATL 7
- Q2 09:28 SAF ATL (9:28) 3-R.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (63-B.Garland). SEA 10 – ATL 9
- Q2 06:09 FG ATL (6:09) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SEA 10 – ATL 12
- Q2 00:59 TD ATL (:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – ATL 18
- Q3 09:16 TD ATL (9:16) 76-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – ATL 25
- Q3 03:07 FG SEA (3:07) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 13 – ATL 26
- Q4 15:00 FG ATL (15:00) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SEA 13 – ATL 29
- Q4 03:44 TD ATL (3:44) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ATL 35
- Q4 03:29 TD SEA (3:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 19 – ATL 36
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%
(11:23) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Hester ran ob at ATL 7 for 80 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 13.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%
(6:09) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 70%
(4:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to ATL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(3:07) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(14:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 59 yards to ATL 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 20 for 10 yards (91-C.Marsh; 52-B.Coyle).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to SEA 33, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-91-C.Upshaw.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 40 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 55%
(2:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.