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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP