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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model