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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Atlanta Falcons 29

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 59 yards to ATL 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 20 for 10 yards (91-C.Marsh; 52-B.Coyle).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model