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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 36 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP