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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 21 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to NE 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to ATL 45 for 34 yards (29-C.Goodwin). Atlanta challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to NE 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 47 for 26 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model