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New England Patriots

14-2 HC Bill Belichick
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Atlanta Falcons

11-5 HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-02-05 · 18:30 ET NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 57.0

Win Probability

NE
49.9%
ATL
50.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.284 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NE offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.340 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.269 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.012 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 27 20–34
–
ATL 28 21–35
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 55

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 21

NE

Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Knee
Alan Branch DT Questionable Toe
Nate Ebner S Questionable Concussion
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Thigh
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Knee
Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 34
–
ATL 28

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:20 TD ATL (12:20) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 08:55 TD ATL (8:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-23-P.Chung, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NE 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 02:36 TD ATL (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at ATL 18. 23-R.Alford for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – ATL 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG NE (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – ATL 21
  • Q3 08:36 TD ATL (8:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – ATL 27
  • Q3 02:12 TD NE (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – ATL 28
  • Q4 09:48 FG NE (9:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 12 – ATL 28
  • Q4 06:00 TD NE (6:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 18 – ATL 28
  • Q4 01:00 TD NE (1:00) 28-J.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – ATL 28
  • Q5 11:08 TD NE (11:08) 28-J.White right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 34 – ATL 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:47) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 16 for 1 yard (51-B.Mingo). PENALTY on ATL-55-P.Worrilow, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at ATL 15.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to NE 5, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 10 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 42-P.DiMarco).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 19 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 32%

    (5:14) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 18 for 9 yards (14-E.Weems).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:45) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. (The Punt Hangtime was 3.88 seconds.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:19) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to NE 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to ATL 45 for 34 yards (29-C.Goodwin). Atlanta challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to NE 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 47 for 26 yards (14-E.Weems).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:52) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. (The Punt Hangtime was 4.19 seconds.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at ATL 37 for 17 yards (59-D.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (9:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to NE 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →