Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 55

New England Patriots 3 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(12:52) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. (The Punt Hangtime was 4.19 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model