Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 28 – New England Patriots 28

(:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to NE 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.07 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -0.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model